Apparently, so I have read, not even Facebook believes in the $15 billion valuation any longer. Evidence to that fact by insider selling of shares at a $3-$5B valuation, which I still think is high.
So why is the valuation coming down to earth? In my opinion it’s simple. Facebook is justifying the valuation on their monetization strategy, which is based entirely on advertising revenue. Their advertising revenue is expected to come in around $300 million this year, so an agressive 20x multiple on sales put’s the valuation at $6B. Why is advertising revenue much weaker than expected? Again, it’s simple. Their ad strategy is based on banner ads…yes those annoying ads that show up on websites that everyone ignores and no one clicks on. Ask yourself, when is the last time you clicked on a banner ad, let alone completed the advertiser’s desired call to action? Click through rates are anemic, especially on social networks. Industry averages peg CTR on social nets in the .01-.04% range. With CTR that low, already low CPM pricing is continuing to contract. At StashCast, we have run campaigns on Facebook with CPM rates in the .$50 range and CTR within the industry average. Try it…I bet you find similar results.
Google is facing similar issues when trying to monetize all the YouTube traffic through advertising. Nothing they have tried thus far is working effectively. Today’s consumer has changed. They have control and are not going to click on web ads if they don’t have to. Hence, the anemic click through rates and the poor ad performance create the gravitational pull of sky high valuations back down to earth.
